Labour Force figures for October have shown Australia’s unemployment rate has remained at 4.1 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
The number of unemployed increased by 1.3 per cent month on month (8,300 people) to 625,000, sitting 67,000 higher than a year ago, but still 82,000 lower than in March 2020.
Head of labour statistics, Bjorn Jarvis, said: “With employment rising by around 16,000 people and the number of unemployed up by around 8,000, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 per cent.
“This was the third month in a row that the unemployment rate had been at 4.1 per cent. This is around 0.6 percentage points above its recent low of 3.5 per cent in June 2023, but is 1.1 percentage points below March 2020, when it was 5.2 per cent.
“While employment grew in October, the 0.1 per cent increase was the slowest growth in recent months. This was lower than each of the previous six months, when employment rose by an average of 0.3 per cent per month.
“With population growth in October outpacing the small rise in employment and unemployment, the participation rate fell slightly to 67.1 per cent, while the employment-to-population ratio remained at the historical high of 64.4 per cent.”
Chief economist of Employment Hero, Ben Thompson, said the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1 per cent reflects “job market instability”.
“In parallel, Employment Hero data shows employment growth slowed to 4.8 per cent year-on-year in October 2024, down from 8.3 per cent in October 2023,” Thompson said.
“This combination of a stable unemployment rate and a slower employment growth rate suggests a softening demand for hiring, as businesses appear more cautious about expansion in response to economic pressures.”
According to Thompson, SMEs are “navigating a complex environment balancing operational needs with the rising cost of doing business”.
“Many small businesses are struggling to grow sustainably, highlighting the pressure of an evolving labour market and the impact it has on job stability,” Thompson said.
APAC economist at State Street Global Advisors, Krishna Bhimavarapu, said the unemployment rate does not support a rate cut in the near term.
“With the RBA lowering their GDP forecasts recently, it signals that the Bank is comfortable remaining restrictive for an extended period,” Bhimavarapu said.
APAC economist at Indeed, Callam Pickering, said the Australian labour market “remains incredibly tight and is proving highly resilient”.
“The unemployment rate is low, employment growth is strong and forward-looking measures of labour demand remain solid. This is a labour market at odds with Australia’s anaemic economic performance,” Pickering said.
“There was nothing in the latest labour force figures that will shift RBA thinking. And when combined with recent wage growth data, we have to conclude that Australia’s labour market dynamics simply aren’t consistent with cutting the cash rate anytime soon.”
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